6139 Pogue.. It's all over ?

After many years in collecting, servicing and selling these fatastic 6139's I have to say "I think the bubble has burst" this last couple of years has seen me sell many True Pogues from £1250 in 2018 to £2850 in early 2021, aswell as many Proof and Resist models, but the sheer amount of "fake" parts and dishonest listings have taken the toll on buyers.... it seems that buyers are so confused to what is genuine and fake, it has put buyers off and prices and sales of genuine or fako's have just about become identical. A good Proof/Resisit was £1500-£2000 now it's £600-£700.

What do you think ?

$500 for a resist dial
https://www.ebay.com/itm/234335584259?hash=item368f7d4003:g:uFcAAOSw-uBhuTdG

Buy it.

If the $499 dial is fake then someone has gone to a lot of effort to make it grungy and unattractive. I'm leaning towards the dial being legit, although I can't say if it's original to the watch. However, I don't like the rotating inner bezel. There are some off signs. I'm leaning towards the exterior bezel being legit. I thought the tapered bracelets weren't introduced as early as 1973, but I could be wrong. My August 73 model has a straight bracelet.

That's why I stick to that other " First automatic chronograph in space " : Movado Datachron HS-360 as worn by Commander Gerald Carr on the very same Skylab SL-4 mission from 16 November 1973 to 8 February 1974...
These "El Primero" powered high frequency (36000 VPH - Vibrations Per HOur = 5 Hertz) Datachron versions have become unicorns...
It looks like these patinated from blue dial to chocolate dial as can be seen in the photographs below showing the Datachron during SL-04 recovery onboard USS New Orleans in February 1974 and the actual watch 47 years later in 2021 !
.

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47 years later: CommanderCarr's Movado Datachron HS360 automatic chronograph with screw-down crown owned by his daughter in 2021
. (Photo: Hodinkee)

I've tracked Pogues (and 6139-6005s more broadly) for the last several years. I'm mostly with OP that the prices seem to have softened a bit *generally*, but I'd disagree that they're softening much for True Pogues. The $499 linked-to watch is tatty, and it's a 6002; no one I know who's interested in a TP would bother. I think the yellow-dialed 6139 market, as a whole, has cooled off (which is good). I think legit and original True Pogues are stable, and will continue to climb, but maybe that's just me.

I'm very aware of that Ebay link not being a True Pogue, It's in reply to the "I've never seen a resist for less than £600" given the photo's and brief description it's 100% original, but not a great example although the dial looks very good, it has a few "black spots" this is due to a reaction with the silver plating and yellow laquer used at the time, also the chrono clutch will need replacing (as per description on reset), the chapter ring is UV damaged and has been handled. Would I buy it ? yes you won't find one better for less, and I would service it and fit the parts needed but my time is over with these, There is a 6139-6005 True Pogue by another seller he will accept $2k, it has "been serviced" as per description and had a new aftermarket crystal fitted, but all looks good It may have had the triangle on the chapter ring re lumed.

This is the last one I sold.

yeah this is sort of why I stopped looking for pogues, it just got annoying having to be so paranoid

I don't (entirely) agree and I've been collecting and writing about Pogues for a good few years, keeping an eye on their values too.

If you're looking primarily on eBay then the game is bust - pretty much every 6139-600x on eBay is garbage. If they're not full of fake parts (knowingly by the seller or not, though most of the time it's the same offenders peddling knocked up watches with shyster descriptions like "Due the watches age some parts might have been replaced"), then they're in poor condition and will need money spending on them to get them running well. I've had a £250 watch from Venezuela (bought for its bracelet, if truth be told) cost me £400 to get running again.

As for spotting fakes, I can understand why people are nervous as the aftermarket stuff is getting better looking (in photos at least), but a seasoned eye can spot tell-tales pretty quickly.

eg:
Seiko 6139-600x–part iii - The Pogue
Seiko Pogue authentication part i - Bezels
Seiko Pogue authentication part ii - Dials

The Good Stuff is held close by knowledgeable collectors but does change hands through private sales and trades; I've thinned my collection a bit this year and was getting ~£900 for a good, serviced yellow-dial, RESIST 6139-6002 on correct (if not necessarily original to that watch) Seiko bracelet. True Pogues are not my bag (nor JDM ones) but I did sell a freshly-serviced Blue RESIST 6139-6005 on a decent Stelux President for £625, which was a bit of a bargain for the buyer IMHO. Similarly, I've paid >£1200 for a good Yellow PROOF 6000 which I knew to be running but not recently serviced.

The supply of good watches appears to have dried up a bit - even the dealers like Hub City Vintage or DCVW have little to offer; maybe buyers are being tempted with bargains in the many other 6139 variants... why pay £1000 for a yellow Pogue when you could have a black 6139-6030 for half as much?